The month of July has finally arrived, which means that we are heading into the final month of the Arena Football regular season. Fifteen weeks of exciting AFL action has come and gone, but these last four weeks hold bright promise as the field of eight will be determined. Entering Week 16, three playoff spots have been clinched and ten times remain alive in a respective playoff chase. Let's take a look at how everyone stands entering the turn into the home stretch.
American Conference - South Division
Jacksonville Sharks - (10-5), 1st in South Division, clinched playoff-berth
The Sharks find themselves in a familar spot in July, first place of the south. You feel Jacksonville has kinda had three different seasons in 2013. They started 6-0, but lost five of their next seven to falter to 8-5 in the middle of June. Since that point the Sharks have won back-to-back home games to clinch a fourth straight playoff berth and lead the south by 2.5 games entering week sixteen. The month if June was a roller coaster ride that provided many twists and turns. The month began on a great note with a dominant 70-48 win over Pittsburgh in the Shark Tank. They then had a two-game west coast trip that featured losses to Spokane (76-41) and Utah (62-55); to make matters more complicated Bernard Morris was injured against the Shock and has been inactive ever since. The Sharks needed a replacement at quarterback and signed Kyle Rowley, who traded starts with R.J. Archer the last three weeks. In the last two games of June Jacksonville defended their Tank with a pair of tight wins over Cleveland (43-41) and Orlando (62-55).
Key Stats
- Bernard Morris 226-347, 2419 yards, 50 TD, 8 Int; 270 rush yards, 8 Rush TD (12 games)
- R.J. Archer 72-102, 741 yards, 12 TD, 3 Int (6 games)
- Kyle Rowley 58-95, 621 yards, 11 TD, 5 Int; 26 rush yards, 3 Rush TD (3 games with JAX)
- Rendrick Taylor 49 rush, 173 yards, 10 TD (9 games)
- Jeron Harvey 127 rec, 1402 yards, 32 TD (15 games)
- Markee White 93 rec, 962 yards, 17 TD (15 games)
- Jeff Hughley 74 rec, 830 yards, 13 TD (11 games)
- Terrance Smith 73 tackles, 11 Int, 3 Fumb, Rec, 1 Def TD (15 games)
- Jerry Turner/Aaron Robbins 9 sacks each
- Jax Defense 24 takaways, 3 Def TD, 36 sacks --> leads AFL
July Schedule
Week 16 - Bye
Week 17 - vs. Spokane
Week 18 - @ New Orleans
Week 19 - vs. Tampa Bay
Home Stretch Outlook
- The Sharks begin July with their long-awaited bye week, which comes at the right time so the Sharks can try to get healthy for the postseason
- Bernard Morris, Jeff Hughley -- two key offensive weapons that have missed significant time due to injury
- Can Kyle Rowley or R.J. be the guy to lead this team to the Arena Bowl if called upon
- Will London Crawford's success in week 15 carry over
- Jacksonville has clinched their fourth straight playoff berth and looks to make a four-peat in the south with one more win or one more loss by Tampa Bay
Prediction
Jacksonville will win two of three games in July and will have homefield advantage when the postseason comes time.
Tampa Bay Storm - (7-7), 2nd in the south division, lead the American Confernce wild card race
The Storm had a great first half of the season but have since cooled off. After beginning the summer with a 6-3 mark, Tampa Bay lost three of four June games. The Storm had a rough going in the past month, dropping three close decisions in a row: to Orlando (55-48), New Orleans (54-51), and Chicago (50-49). If not for a last-second 65-62 win at Iowa on the first day of the month, Tampa Bay would be starring at five consecutive losses instead of losing five out of their last seven. The young Storm defense that we were all excited about has struggled in the last four weeks by allowing 55.3 ppg. June was already a tough stretch but it got even cloudier when Greg Ellingson left for the CFL, and Adrian McPherson was injured in week thirteen and as a result didn't play in the 50-49 loss vs. Chicago. Tampa Bay still has a firm two-game hold on the top wild card spot, but their hopes of a division crown are all but gone entering July.
Key Stats
- Adrian McPherson 238-385, 3151 yards, 59 TD, 5 Int; 415 rush yards, 31 Rush TD (13 games)
- Randy Hippeard 46-71, 613 yards, 10 TD; 3 Rush TD (7 games, 1 start)
- Joe Hills 96 rec, 1441 yards, 32 TD (12 games)
- Michael Lindsey 61 rec, 722 yards, 11 TD (14 games)
- Chris Davis 50 rec, 508 yards, 8 TD (11 games)
- Chris Smith 59 tackles, 8 Int (13 games)
- Jean Fanor 54.5 tackles, 4 Int, Fumb Rec, 1 Def TD (13 games)
- Rashad Barksdale 48 tackles, 2 Int (9 games)
- De'Audra Dix 5 Int, Fumb Rec (6 games)
- 2-5 home record
July Schedule
Week 16 - vs. Spokane
Week 17 - @ San Antonio
Week 18 - vs. Pittsburgh
Week 19 - @ Jacksonville
Home Stretch Outlook
- Injuries piled up for the Storm during June and must take a bit of the blame for the five losses in their last seven games
- If the secondary gets healthy before August then the Storm have a chance to surprise with an Arena Bowl berth
- The July schedule can go one of two ways for the Storm: be a rough sleding that has Tampa Bay entering the playoffs with 8 wins; or be a nice turnaround stretch that can give them a momentus push into the postseason with ten wins
- If Adrian McPherson makes a healthy return and can resume his MVP-form, then look for Tampa Bay to regain at least somewhat of their 6-3 form
- Joe Hills has been the go-to-guy on offense and will be fine, but who can be the solid second option to force opposing defenses to lay off him
- The Storm's chance at the division may be slim, but their first postseason appearance sine 2010 looks to be a sure thing
Prediction
Tampa Bay has lost three-straight and five of seven, but when McPherson and a couple of key defenders return to action I look for Tampa Bay to pull even in July and enter the playoffs as the three seed with a 9-9 record.
Orlando Predators - (5-9), 3rd in south division, have a one-game lead for the final wild card spot
The 2013 season for the Predators was headlined by their guarantee of a winning season to all the season ticket holders and can be split into two parts. The first month and a half Kyle Rowley was the man in charge but he had anything but success, completing 51.7% of his passes while throwing 11 interceptions to post an 0-5 mark. He was released and the Preds traded for Aaron Garcia, who had similar struggles with San Jose. Since Gacia has been the leader of the jungle Orlando has won five of nine games and is in position to make the postseason. The month of June proved to be a successful one as the Preds won three of their five games, with all three wins coming in a row. Four of the five games in June were decided by one score: a 63-55 loss vs. Chicago to begin the summer, a three-game winning streak by a total of 29 points, and a tough 62-55 loss at Jacksonville that ended any hope at the division. The Predators' three-game win streak could be subject since it featured home wins over Cleveland and Pittsburgh, and a win at Tampa Bay; but it allowed Orlando to move up the standings from being one-game out to in the American Conference second wild card spot.
Key Stats
- Aaron Garcia 217-344, 2640 yards, 56 TD, 10 Int (9 games)
- Mykel Benson 16 rush, 31 yards, 6 TD (3 games)
- T.T. Toliver 96 rec, 1205 yards, 18 TD (10 games)
- Prechae Rodriguez 95 rec, 1262 yards, 35 TD (13 games)
- Jason Geathers 78 rec, 816 yards, 12 TD (14 games)
- Dominic Jones 70 tackles, Int, 2 Fumb Rec, 1 Def TD; 1421 kick ret yards, 4 TD (14 games)
- Marcus Everett 41.5 tackles, 1 sack, 4 Int, 2 Fumb Rec, 3 Def TD (14 games)
- Prentice Purnell --> leads team with 4 sacks in ten games
July Schedule
Week 16 - vs. Arizona
Week 17 - vs. Iowa
Week 18 - @ Cleveland
Week 19 - vs. New Orleans
Home Stretch Outlook
- Aaron Garcia has been the man that has turned this season around for the Preds and has them sitting in the four-spot entering week sixteen
- The defense has struggled for a good part of the season, especially the secondary, but lately it has been good enough to keep the team in each game
- Orlando's offense looks to be fully locked, but their postseason hopes and potential run hang on the backs of the defense
- The July schedule starts rough with a week sixteen date against Arizona, but three of the four games are at home and against teams with losing records
- Depending on how things go, the week nineteen tilt against New Orleans could determine whether or not Orlando is playing in August
Prediction
The Predators enter July with a one-game lead over New Orleans for the final wild card in the American Conference. The final month's schedule looks favorable for Orlando and once they move past a tough match with Arizona, I see them finishing the season with eight wins and entering the playoffs on a three-game win streak.
New Orleans VooDoo - (4-10), last in the south, trail Orlando by one-game in the A.C. wild card
Despite being 4-10 entering July the VooDoo are right where they need to be to contend for one of the American Confernce's four playoff spots. New Orleans endured an eight-game losing streak in the first part of the season, but won three of five June games to move up the ladder. Just like their southern foes Orlando, the VooDoo scored wins against Cleveland (69-40), Tampa Bay (54-51), and at Pittsburgh (59-54) to jump Pittsburgh in the wild card hunt. A pair of heartbreaking losses, a 56-53 loss to San Antonio and losing at Philadelphia after having lead for literally all but the last five seconds, in June are what have New Orleans on the outside looking in. Some key factors in the VooDoo's recent success is the healthy combination of Kurt Rocco and Donovan Morgan, and a reconstructed secondary. Chris Dixon has also proved to be a great addition, even though he has spottingly played he has made a key impact. If both of these areas along with the stout play of the defensive line can keep up through July then New Orleans could very well find themselves back into the playoffs.
Key Stats
- Kurt Rocco 167-305, 2307 yards, 49 TD, 18 Int; 4 Rush TD (11 games)
- Chris Dixon 13-19, 213 yards, 6 TD, 15 rush, 83 yards, 3 Rush TD (5 games)
- Donovan Morgan 75 rec, 1152 yards, 24 TD (11 games)
- Courtney Smith 69 rec, 702 yards, 17 TD (13 games)
- Quorey Payne 38 rec, 552 yards, 7 TD; FG-Ret TD; 1047 ret yards, 3 Kick-ret TD (9 games)
- Cameron McGlenn 5 Int, 1 Def TD (5 games)
- Eddie Moten 49 tackles, 4 int, 2 fumb rec (11 games)
- Dwight McClean 45 tackles, Int (6 games)
- Marlon Favorite 6 sacks (14 games); Michael Janac 5.5 sacks (13 games); Xavier Brown 4.5 sacks (12 games) --> 16 of team's 25 sacks
- Kenny Spencer 8-8 pat, 1-1 FG (46) (1 game, week 15)
July Schedule
Week 16 - @ Utah
Week 17 - @ Arizona
Week 18 - vs. Jacksonville
Week 19 - @ Orlando
Home Stretch Outlook
- A tough west coast trip to start July could make or break the season for the VooDoo; week sixteen is a must win
- Are the VooDoo better with a healthy Kurt Rocco at QB, or Chris Dixon? Both have so far performed well in the second half of the season, but it's a matter of who can get the job done
- Can this midseason-rebuilt team sneak it into the playoffs with its new additions: McGlenn and McClean who along with Eddie Moten are responsible for 10 of the team's 13 interceptions, Kenny Spencer who was flawless in his VooDoo-debut in week fifteen, and possibly Chris Dixon depending on Rocco's injury status
- If New Orleans can stay within one-game of Orlando then they have a chance since they won the first meeting of the season in wild overtime fashion
- July won't be easy with three road games that include contests at Utah and Arizona
Prediciton
A tough July for the VooDoo that's coupled with an easy slate for Orlando means no playoffs this year. New Orleans is only one game back and has the head-to-head, but I think the damage will be done before their week nineteen trip to the Jungle and the VooDoo will finish with a disappointing five wins.
South Standings heading into Week 16 Team Overal record (division record)
xJacksonville 10-5 (4-0) x = clinched playoff berth
Tampa Bay 7-7 (2-3) y = clinched division
Orlando 5-9 (1-4) z = clinched home field advantage
New Orleans 4-10 (2-2)
American Conference Wild Card Standings
Tampa Bay 7-7
Orlando 5-9 (2 games back)
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New Orleans 4-10 (1 game out)
Pittsburgh 3-11 (2 games out)
Cleveland 2-12 (3 games out)
Next up is the East Division's Turn into the Home Stretch!
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