National Conference - West Division
Arizona Rattlers - (12-2), first in west division, clinched playoff spot
The defending champs have been nothing short of fabulous in 2013. The Rattlers hold the AFL's best record entering July and won nine straight games at one point in the season. That win streak really took off in June but not before it was almost snapped in Philadelphia, 22 unanswered points saved the day for a 64-57 comeback win. The next two weeks were a breeze, featuring the most dominant performance that I have seen in awhile during a 70-21 win at San Antonio and a nice taste of revenge when the Rattlers evened the score with Spokane with a 59-42 win. All was going great for Arizona until they went to their bitter rivals' place in week fourteen and tasted a bit of their own payback as they lost to San Jose 72-42 which ended the streak. Heading into July Nick Davila and company are once again in position for another trip to the Arena Bowl. Maurice Purify has only played in five games this season, but his return only strengthens this already great team.
Key Stats
- Nick Davila 283-438, 3765 yards, 86 TD, 10 Int; 5 Rush TD (14 games)
- Odie Armstrong 60 rush, 142 yards, 20 TD; 173 rec yards, 2 TD (13 games)
- Rod Windsor 86 rec, 1146 yards, 30 TD (12 games)
- Kerry Reed 61 rec, 819 yards, 21 TD; Int-ret TD (14 games)
- Jared Perry 53 rec, 813 yards, 20 TD (12 games)
- Maurice Purify 29 rec, 385 yards, 3 TD (5 games)- Arkeith Brown 69.5 tackles, 8 Int, Fumb Rec 2 Def TD (14 games)
- Marquis Floyd 61 tackles, 7 Int, Fumb Rec 1Def TD (12 games)
- Virgil Gray 67 tackles, 6 Int, Fumb Rec 1 Def TD (13 games)
- Jeremy Kellem 63.5 tackles, 5 Int 1 Def TD (14 games)
- Garrett Lindholm 118-126 PAT, 6-11 FG (33) (14 games)
- Marcus Pittman 4.5 sacks (12 games), Tyre Glasper 4 sacks (14 games)
July Schedule
Week 16 - @ Orlando
Week 17 - vs. New Orleans
Week 18 - vs. Chicago
Week 19 - @ Iowa
Home Stretch Outlook
- Where is there a crack in the surface, you look at this team from top to bottom and can't find one without being nit-picky
- Kerry Reed has been the definition of Mr. Reliable, playing in all fourteen games and being second on the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. His contributions have been majorily underrated this season
- Maurice Purify is finally healthy and only gives Davila another weapon to use
- The Rattler defense is the best at forcing turnovers, the trio of Brown-Floyd-Gray has combined for 21 interceptions and four touchdowns; add Jeremy Kellem into the mix and that five more interceptions and another defensive score
- The Rattlers look well on their way to this year's National Conference home field advantage, and are the easy favorites to appear in their third consecutive Arena Bowl
Predicition
Regardless of the situation or opponent it is hard to pick against Arizona, they will clinch homefield advantage in week sixteen and lock the division up later in July. I see the Rattlers heading into the playoffs with fifteen wins and the one seed.
Spokane Shock - (10-4), tied for second in the west, tied for both N.C. wild card spots
Spokane his had a lot of success thanks to their MVP candidate Erik Meyer, who is enjoying a career year. The Shock won their first five games, and despite being nearly a .500 team since has still looked good for most of the season. The summer got off to an awesome start for the Shock with back-to-back dominating performances in Deaf Valley over San Jose (75-45) and Jacksonville (76-41). The Shock had a great opportunity when they ventured into the SnakePit, but came up short in a 59-42 loss at Arizona. The Shock asnwered brillantly with another domianting performance at home, a 80-41 win over Utah. Spokane enters July in a very good position to make the postseason and still with a realistic chance to win the west.
Key Stats
- Erik Meyer 329-474, 3774 yards, 89 TD, 7 Int; 103 Rush yards, 11 TD (14 games)- Adron Tennell 130 rec, 1498 yards, 40 TD; 72 rush yards, 6 TD (14 games)
- Kamar Jorden 73 rec, 848 yards, 24 TD (13 games)
- Brandon Thompkins 42 rec, 606 yards, 10 TD (7 games)
- Paul Stephens 51.5 tackles, 8 Int, 2 Fumb Rec, 3 Def TD (10 games)
- Terrance Sanders 78.5 tackles, 5 Int, Fumb Rec 3 Def TD; 1773 kick ret yards, 5 TD (14 games)
- Beau Bell 55.5 tackles, 7 sacks, Int, Fumb Rec (13 games)
- James Ruffin 7.5 sacks (13 games)
July Schedule
Week 16 - @ Tampa Bay
Week 17 - @ Jacksonville
Week 18 - vs. San Antonio
Week 19 - vs. Pittsburgh
Home Stretch Outlook
- In order for the Shock to be Arena Bowl contenders Erik Meyer is going to have to continue his play, but more importantly the defense is going to have to make consistent stops at some point
- The Shock have been great at both home and on the road, a key element that gets overlooked
- Spokane has had success against the competing teams in the National Conference: 1-0 vs. both San Antonio and Chicago, 1-1 vs. Arizona, and 2-0 vs. San Jose
- July's slate is managable, but also tricky as a Florida road trip will be a good tune up before the Shock return home to face a potential first round opponent in San Antonio and close with Pittsburgh
- Adron Tennell is having another elite season and Kamar Jorden has emerged as a favorite for rookie of the year, but will the lack of a run game come back to be a bite in the butt
- Terrance Sanders can instatnly change a game, 8 touchdowns, and his playmaking ability is a great asset that can propel Spokane to make a run at it all
Prediction
Spokane is a solid team in their own right and has played great this year. I think a two-game deficit to Arizona in the west is too much to overcome in July, but I see the Shock finishing with thirteen wins and the three seed in time for August.
San Jose Sabercats - (10-4), tied for second in the west, tied for both N.C. wild card spots
San Jose had an up and down first month of the season, but since acquiring Russ Michna have been nearly unbeatable. The 'Cats have won eight of ten games and are prime contenders in the National Conference. Both of those losses came in a three week span where San Jose got drummed by Spokane 75-45 and failed to execute a late-game red zone trip in a 73-68 loss at Iowa. Besides those two results, June confirmed that San Jose is the real deal with wins over Pittsburgh (68-54), Arizona (72-42), and at Utah (57-49). Michna's arm and the ironman abilities of Huey Whittaker have San Jose poised to make a second straight trip to the playoffs.
Key Stats
Russ Michna 185-281, 2315 yards, 48 TD, 7 Int; 4 Rush TD (9 games)Jason Willis 99 rec, 1218 yards, 31 TD (14 games)
Fred Williams 84 rec, 1068 yards, 18 TD, 811 kick-ret yards, 2 TD (11 games)
Huey Whittaker 66 rec, 758 yards, 18 TD; 48.5 tackles, sack, 4 Int, 4 Def TD (13 games)
Clevan Thomas 62 tackles, 9 Int, 2 Fumb Rec Def TD (14 tackles)
Ken Fontenette 75 tackles, 3 Int, 2 Def TD (11 tackles)
Nich Pertuit 93-106 PAT, 2-3 FG (37) (14 games)
Francis Maka 9 sacks (12 games), Terrance Carter 5.5 sacks (11 games), Jason Stewart 5 sacks (14 games) --> 19.5 of 28 sacks
J.C. Neal 72 tackles, 4 FF, Fumb Rec (14 games)
July Schedule
Week 16 - vs. San Antonio
Week 17 - @ Pittsburgh
Week 18 - vs. Philadelphia
Week 19 - vs. Chicago
Home Stretch Outlook
- Russ Michna and his receiving core of Willis, Williams, and Amarri Jackson have been one of the most proficient offenses in 2013
- The Sabercat D-Line has also been great at times this year, racking up 19.5 sacks; but have not shown the same level on a week to week basis
- Huey Whittaker is a throwback ironman. He is third on the team in receiving, while making a monster impact on defense
- San Jose has been dominant at home by winning six of seven games, but unless they can find a way to steal the west division that won't be of much importance in the playoffs
- July shapes up to be a comfortable road for the 'Cats with three games at home and a raod trip to Pittsburgh, but not having the tiebreak with Spokane can keep them in the four spot
Prediction
San Jose should be able to win at least two of their July games, but getting swept by Spokane will prevent them from a better playoff seeding. San Jose will finish with twelve wins and get the second N.C. wild card.
Utah Blaze - (5-9), last in west division, eliminated from playoff contention
The Blaze are the only team in the League to enter July officially eliminated from playoff contention. Utah has the short end of the stick having to play in the wild west, which has been responsible for five of their nine losses. June was an interesting month for the Blaze to say the least. It started off with a gamble gone wrong in San Antonio that ended a 42-41 loss and turned into a 67-43 demolishment in Chicago. The Blaze kept some hope alive with a 62-55 win against Jacksonville, but the air quickly cleared with back-to-back division losses to Spokane (80-41) and San Jose (57-49). The loss to San Jose officially eliminated the Blaze from the playoffs. To add on to the losing, a quarterback switch in the middle of the month that moved Tommy Grady to the bench in favor of Jason Boltus also shook the team up. The consistent bright spot for Utah has been rookie standout Mario Urrutia.
Key Stats
Tommy Grady 252-435, 2951 yards, 56 TD, 25 Int (12 games)Jason Boltus 92-148, 1129 yards, 25 TD, 5 Int; 82 rush yards, TD (12 games, 3 starts)
Mario Urrutia 122 rec, 1488 yards, 34 TD (14 games)
Aaron LeSue 62 rec, 748 yards, 16 TD (8 games)
Chase Deadder 56 rec, 561 yards, 11 TD (13 games)
Anthony Jackson 28 rec, 293 yards, 8 TD (5 games)
David Hyland 70 tackles, 6 Int, 3 Fumb Rec, Def TD (13 games)
Maurice Leggett 64.5 tackles, 5 Int, Fumb Rec, Def TD (13 games)
Antwan Marsh 2 Int, Fumb Rec, Def TD (8 games)
Keenan Mace/Mike Alston 3.5 sacks each
July Schedule
Week 16 - vs. New Orleans
Week 17 - @ Philadelphia
Week 18 - @ Iowa
Week 19 - vs. Cleveland
Home Stretch Outlook
- For the Blaze July will be all about pride, with no hope of making the postseason
- This is the chance for Utah to see if Jason Boltus will be the future and depending on that decide on Tommy Grady
- Mario Urrutia has been fantastic all season and is a prime candidate for rookie of the year
- David Hyland and Maurice Leggett have both been sturdy pieces in Utah's secondary and both have had a great 2013
Prediction
Even though Utah is out, they are a better team than their record states when you consider the strength of the west. The Blaze have a chance to play spoiler in July and I think they will do a good enough job to at least make it interesting and finish with six or seven wins.
Central Standings heading into Week 16 Team Overal record (division record)
xArizona 12-2 (4-2) x = clinched playoff berth
Spokane 10-4 (4-2) y = clinched division
San Jose 10-4 (3-3) z = clinched home field advantage
National Conference Wild Card Standings
Spokane 10-4
San Jose 10-4 (0 games back)
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San Antonio 8-6 (2 games out)
Chicago 8-6 (2 games out)
Last up is the wrap-up Turn into the Home Stretch blog, enjoy!
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