As we continue to look at the American Conference, its now time to look at the south division and give the good and the bad for each team from the second quarter of the
season, look at how my predictions for the past month fared and give some
thoughts on what we might see in the month of June.
South Division
1) Jacksonville Sharks (7-3)
Second quarter results: The Sharks held off Philadelphia in week six to earn a franchise best, 6-0 start. The next week Jacksonville played host to Arizona, who handed them their first loss of the season by a tally of 58-48. The next two weeks resulted in a close loss in San Antonio and getting blown out by San Jose at Sea Best Field in week nine to fall to 6-3. Snapped the franchise-long skid with a 44-41 win at Orlando in week ten.
5 Good:
- Top defense in AFL, allow league-low with 44.6 ppg and 29 sacks
- 5-1 road record
- First in South Division through ten weeks, 3-0 division record
- Bernard Morris 66.7% comp, 2000 pass yds, 43 TD, 5 Int; 215 rush yds, 7 TD
- Jeron Harvey, Jeff Hughley, Markee White all 60+ catches, 630+ rec yds, and 12+ rec TD's
5 Bad:
- Have looked sluggish the last three weeks
- Back-to-back west coast games in weeks twelve and thirteen
- Tampa Bay red-hot on their heels
- 39.5 ppg in last four games (1-3)
- Lack depth at offensive skill positions
Key Stats:
Bernard Morris 66.7% comp, 2000 pass yds, 43 TD, 5 Int; 215 rush yds, 7 TD
Jeron Harvey 80 rec, 781 yds, 20 TD
Jeff Hughley 66 rec, 736 yds, 12 TD, 3 Rush TD
Markee White 60 rec, 636 yds, 14 TD
Terrace Smith leads team with 5 Int, 1 ret-TD
Sack artists: Jerry Turner 8 sacks, Aaron Robbins 7.5 sacks
Overview: Entering week the Sharks are 7-3 and have a one-game lead in the south. SO far, this season has featured a franchise-best six-game winning streak to start the season and a franchise-worst three-game losing streak that followed. Jacksonville looks for a second straight win when they host the Power this week. If the Sharks can break out of their mini slump and can return to form from the first six weeks then they will, without a doubt, be the favorites to represent the conference in the Arena Bowl. Predicition: Other than a two-week west coast trip the month of June looks easy for the Sharks, so I say if Bernard Morris can lead a dynamic offensive attack they will win at least three games this month and have ten, maybe elevan wins entering the final stretch.
2) Tampa Bay Storm (6-4)
Second quarter results: Built a three-game win streak with impressive wins at Spokane in week six, and vs. New Orleans in week seven. The streak was snapped in week eight when San Jose's defenisve line dominated a 64-34 game. Beat Pittsburgh by 28 in week nine, but lost by 18 to Philadelphia in week ten.
5 Good:
- Adrian McPherson, stats listed below, my top candidate for AFL MVP
- The McPherson-Hills connection
- A youthful secondary that is tied for second in the AFL with 18 interceptions and tied for first with 31 takeaways
- Offense scoress 57.4 ppg, has scored 50+ points in eight of ten games
- A June schedule that features home games vs. Chicago and Orlando and trips to Iowa and New Orleans, along with a bye.
5 Bad:
- Defense allows 52.8 ppg
- How will Greg Ellingson's departure to Canada effect the offense
- Allowed 29 sacks, the second highest total in the AFL
- Do they rely too much on McPherson to bail them out?
- The lack of a second potent receiver that can detract attnetion from Hills
Key Stats:
Adrian McPherson 61.6% comp, 2409 yds, 45 TD, 3 Int; 345 rush yds, 26 TD
Greg Ellingson 71 rec, 987 yds, 16 TD *Other League exempt list*
Joe Hills 63 rec, 979 yds, 23 TD
Michael Lindsey 32 rec, 372 yds 6 TD
Chris Davis 17 rec, 159 yds, TD, leads team with 7 Int
De'Audra Dix 5 Int
Team has 5 ret-TD
Overview: Tampa Bay is in good position entering week elevan with a 6-4 record and are just one-game back of Jacksonville. Joe Hills missed two games due to an NFL tryout, but returned in week nine to find the team went 1-1 in his abscence. They will need to have a little more success in a similar situation now that Greg Ellingson has left for the CFL. I look for Adrian McPherson to continue the MVP season that he is having and for this young defense to continue impressing to keep the Storm in the title hunt. It helps that Tampa Bay has a 2.5 game lead over everyone in the wild card race, which should allow them to comfortably enter the postseason. Prediction: An easy June should bold well for the Storm, and at the very least have them at nine wins by July 1st and still within one game of Jacksonville.
3) Orlando Predators (2-7)
Second quarter results: Orlando lost their first five games, culimnating with a 82-42 loss vs. Arizona in week six. The Preds parted ways with Kyle Rowley and with Chris Dixon being injured, made a trade with San Jose that acquired Aaron Garcia in exchange for Amarri Jackson. The move appeared to work best for all parties invovled, as Garcia led the Predators to consecutive wins in weeks seven and eight; which featured and elevan touchdown performance in a wild 83-82 come from behind win over Spokane. Orlando has since cooled off, losing their last two to sat at 2-7 entering week elevan.
5 Good:
- Aaron Garcia's ressurrgence, 64.9% comp, 1263 yds, 28 TD, 3 Int; 2-2 record as starter
- Only one-game out of a wild card spot despite the 2-7 record
- 43.4 ppg with Rowley and Dixon; 56.8 ppg with Garcia
- #2 offense in Arena Football, 296.3 pass ypg, 309.8 total ypg
- June features three home games vs. Chicago, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh
5 Bad:
- Defense has allowed the second-highest points, 59.7 ppg
- ranks towards the bottom of the League with a -13 turnover ratio
- June also features two in-state games, both on the road
- After week ten already have seven losses; the "winning guarantee" is in trouble
- 0-3 in the Jungle and 0-3 vs. the south division
Key Stats:
Aaron Garcia 100-154, 1263 yds, 28 TD, 3 Int
T.T. Toliver 68 rec, 874 yds, 13 TD
Prechae Rodriguez 56 rec, 767 yds, 17 TD
Jason Geathers 49 rec, 479 yds, 9 TD
Marcus Everett 26.5 tackles, 2 Int, Fumb Rec, 2 Def TD, 1 sack
Dominic Jones 47 tackles, 9 PBU 1 Int, 2 Fumb Rec, 1 Def TD, 41 kick ret, 861 yds, 2 TD
Overview: The Predators aquired Aaron Garcia at it was rebirth for both, as with Garcia at the helm Orlando won two straight to move to 2-5. Since they have last their last two, but are still right in the chase for the four seed. T.T. Toliver, Jason Geathers, and Prechae Rodriguez have all had a more enjoyable time with Garcia, but he can't fix a defense that ranks toward the bottom in most statistical categories. In order for Orlando to make the playoffs they probably only need six or seven win, but they are going to need much better play from the defense for this to happen. Prediction: Orlando has since cooled off and desparetly need to win in week elevan to avoid another three-game skid and to get their first home win in 2013. The opportunity will be there in June with games against Chicago, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh and three games in the Jungle; I am going out on a limb and predicting three wins for the Preds and with five wins will b right at the front of the mix for the four seed.
4) New Orleans VooDoo (1-8)
Second quarter results: The VooDoo enter week elevan on an eight-game losing streak. During weeks six-ten they lost by margins of 19 (wk. 6), 31 (wk. 7), 46 (wk. 8), 36 (wk.10). 1-8 record through the first ten weeks.
5 Good:
- Donovan "Captain" Morgan; 46 rec, 648 yds, 13 TD in six games - Unbelievably are only two games out of a playoff spot while losing eight straight
- A June schedule that features 3 home games, and games against Cleveland and Pittsburgh
- What can be if Kurt Rocco regains his form from his first two seasons
- Can't find 5 good things when your 1-8, with 8 straight L's
5 Bad:
- Have been outscored 346-546 thru the first nine games, an average of 38.4-60.7; have scored the second-fewest points, while allowing the most
- The offense is ranked 13th in passing (226.8 ypg), last in total offense (240.9 ypg), and three different quarterbacks have combined to throw 20 interceptions for the worst efficency in the AFL
- A (-23) turnover margin that includes 32 giveaways
- The ugly struggles for whoever is quarterback
- No receiver has 50+ receptions and only two have over 40
Key Stats:
*Can anyone play quarterback in New Orleans!?*
Kurt Rocco 51.1% comp, 1283 yds, 23 TD, 11 Int; 2 Rush TD (6 games)
Bill Stull 58.4% comp, 566 yds, 8 TD, 3 Int 3 Rush TD (4 games)
Zack Eskridge 51.4% comp, 283 yds, 4 TD, 6 Int, 26 rush yds, 2 TD (6 games)
Chris Dixon was signed earlier this week to vie for starting job
Donovan Morgan 46 rec, 648 yds, 13 TD
Courtney Smith 42 rec, 464 yds, 10 TD
Defensive leaders: Eddie Moten 3 Int, DeMarcus Robinson 42.5 tackles
Overview: Not much has been positive for the VooDoo this season, but that will be the case when you have lost eight straight games; some have been really ugly. But the lone bright spot is because of the weakness of the conference New Orleans is only two games out of a playoff berth with a 1-8 record. If either Kurt Rocco can turn things in the right direction, or if he can't then Chris Dixon comes in to have success then the VooDoo have a shot. Since returning from injury, Donovan Morgan has arguably been a top-five receiver and can take over a game single-handedly, and the defensive line will need to generate more sacks to help out a struggling secondary to salvage the season. Prediciton: The VooDoo have a great chance to snap the streak on the first day of June when they host Cleveland, if they can't do it then the streak will reach double digits. New Orleans still has a shot to sneak into the playoffs and will need wins against both Cleveland and Pittsburgh in June to make something happen, I say New Orleans earns their first win since March on either the 1st or 29th and will have two wins entering July, three wins if they beat Cleveland this week.
Standings entering Week 11
South Division East
Division
Jacksonville 7-3 (3-0) Philadelphia 5-4 (0-2)
Tampa Bay 6-4 (2-1) Pittsburgh 3-6 (2-0)
Orlando 2-7 (0-3) Cleveland 2-7 (1-1)
New Orleans 1-8 (1-2)
To see my final analysis on the American conference check out the fifth and final Midway Report!
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