As we continue to look at the National Conference, its now time to look at
the west division and give the good and the bad for each team from the second
quarter of the season, look at how my predictions for the past month fared and
give some thoughts on what we might see in the month of June.
West Division
1) Arizona Rattlers (9-1)
Second quarter results: The Rattlers have solitified themselves as the best team in the AFL with a dominating six-game win streak that has featured 3 wins by 16+ points; including 82-42 win over Orlando and a 70-26 win vs Iowa in week ten.
5 Good:
- Nick Davila is directing one of the League's best offenses that has Arizona primed to repeat in 2013
- A current six-game win streak has them atop the west and AFL with a 9-1 record
- Rattler secondary has 20 interceptions, 6 ret-TD's, three DB's with 5+ int, and all have 44+ tackles
- Marcus Pittman with a quiet 4.5 sacks and 4 Fumb Rec
- Jeremy kellem's play at jack-backer has solidified this defense
5 Bad:
- injuries have stinted Maurice Purify to just two games
- Despite the interceptions, the pass defense allows second-most ypg.
- Second-fewest sacks in AFL with 11 in ten games
- A tough June, with games at Philadelphia, San Antonio, and San Jose; host Spokane in week 13
- Best in the AFL, there isn't much to criticize
Key Stats
Nick Davila 66.8% comp, 2642 yds, 66 TD, 4 Int, 2 Rush TD
Odie Armstrong 105 rush yds, 14 TD, 2 rec TD
Rod Windsor 67 rec, 933 yds, 22 TD
Jared Perry 42 rec, 583 yds, 17 TD
Kerry Reed 40 rec, 496 yds, 15 TD
Marquis Floyd 5 Int, 1 ret-TD
Garrett Lindholm 88-95 PAT, 5-9 FG (33)
Virgil Gray/Arkeith Brown 5 Int, 2 ret-TD
Overview: The Rattlers are the defending AFL champs and look to be the clear-cut favorites to appear in their third straight Arena Bowl and repeat as champs entering week eleven. Nick Davila and the offense have been one of the best units all year long, and the defense has also been a turnover machine who has great return ability. A 9-1 record has Arizona atop the best division in the AFL by 1.5 games. Prediction: Arizona has won six straight games and has given no reason to pick against them. June features three road games and a rematch with Spokane in the Snake Pit in week thirteen. It's hard to pick against Arizona, but June has four potentially tough games so Arizona's streak will end some time this month but they will be alright with 12 wins entering July.
2) San Jose Sabercats (7-2)
Second quarter results: Ran through weeks six-ten on a five-game win streak that featured two 19-point wins and two 20-point wins. In all five wins the 'Cats held their opponent to under 40 points.
5 Good:
- Russ Michna has led been the man at quarterback during the five-game win streak and is 5-0 as the starter; stats are below
- The rise of Fred Williams as a consistent playmaker
- The ironman capabiliites of Huey Whittaker
- Sabercat Defense: 1st against the run and total D, fourth vs the pass, and has allowed 49.9 ppg; 35.6 ppg during five-game win streak
- Sabercat Defense is second in AFL with 22 sacks, allows a League-best 28.4% 3rd down converstion rate, and sixth with 22 takeaways
5 Bad:
- Month of June features five games, three on road, and three vs. the division
- Committed 2+ turnovers in eight of ten games this season
- Jamarko Simmons struggles to fit in on offense
- 1-2 record in division
- Can't find much to fault for a team looking as good as San Jose
Key Stats
Russ Michna 66.0% comp, 1214 yds, 24 TD, 4 Int; 2 Rush TD
Jason Willis 59 rec, 687 yds, 16 TD
Fred Williams 39 rec, 582 yds, 9 TD; 18 kick-ret, 397 yds, 2 TD
Huey Whittaker 48 rec, 558 yds, 12 TD; Rush TD; 28.5 tackles, 3 Int, 3 ret-TD
Jamarko Simmons 31 rec, 383 yds, 9 TD; 6 Rush TD
Defensive leaders: Francis Maka 8 sacks, J.C. Neal 46.5 tackles
Clevan Thomas 8 Int, 1 ret-TD
Overview: The Sabercats have been a tale of two seasons. They stumbled to a 2-2 start, aquired Russ Michna, and since have won five straight to reach 7-2. Michna has been nothing short of fantastic and also has allowed Fred Williams to develop into one of the League's best playmakers. With the offense's dramatic improvement undr Michna, the Sabercat D's staunchiness has been overlooked. San Jose's defense, led by Clevan Thomas, Francis Maka, and J.C. Neal have caused havoc on opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks and have played an equally important role during the win streak. Prediction: A June filled with three division games, and three road games will really test these 'Cats, but i think they have a formula that is good enought to win three games this month. I see San Jose with ten wins by July 1st; even though that means losing ground in the west they could potentially secure a wild card berth.
3) Spokane Shock (7-3)
Second quarter results: After winning their first five games, the Shock suffered 3 straight losses by a total of 13 points. The Shock got their sixth win of the season with a 65-54 win over New Orleans in Deaf Valley and made it two in a row with a 61-48 win at San Antonio in week ten.
5 Good:
- Erik Meyer is in the race for AFL MVP and his success has the Shock at 7-3
- Adron Tennell is on pace to be first receiver in 2013 to reahc 100 catches- The Shock secondary who has swiped 16 passes and returned 5 for touchdowns
- The Shock are the only team to beat Arizona through ten weeks
- Offense is ranked fifth in passing and total ypg, ranked second with 67 ppg
5 Bad:
- Only two receivers have 35+ catches
- Defense ranks last in total ypg allowed (342.4) and pass ypg allowed (321.1)
- Tough June schedule that features three division games, two on road, and host Jacksonville in week twelve
- Has allowed 53.9 ppg
- Do not have a true fullback that can pick up the nitty gritty yards
Key Stats
Erik Meyer 69.2% comp, 2926 yds, 70 TD, 5 Int; 81 rush yds, 6 TD
Adron Tennell 98 rec, 1221 yds, 32 TD; 3 Rush TD
Kamar Jorden 59 rec, 711 yds, 18 TD
Duane Brooks 6 rec TD, Jeff Soloman 5 rec TD, Brandon Thompkins 3 rec TD
Paul Stephens 8 Int, 3 ret-TD
Terrance Sanders 53 tackles, 2 Int, 1 ret-TD; 61 kick ret, 1430 yds, 4 TD
James Ruffin 6.5 sacks, Beau Bell 4 sacks
Overview: The Shock have seemed to turn things around after a shocking, no pun intended, 83-82 loss to Orlando in week eight. They have won two straight and are a half-game behind San Jose, and two games back of Arizona in the division. Erik Meyer is a strong MVP candidate, as is Adron Tennell who have formed a fearsome QB-receiver combo. Kamar Jorden's play has him in discussion for rookie of the year. The offense is fine, the problem lies within the Shock defense which has been inconsistent this year. Paul Stephens and Terrance Sanders have both been fantastic in the secondary and James Ruffin and Beau Bell have been a nice 1-2 punch in the pass rush, but if not for the pretty stats this unit has struggled at times this season. If Spokane is to reach the Arena Bowl the defense needs to rely more on forcing turnover downs to earn stops rather than going all-or-none on turnovers. Prediction: The Shock have a tough four games in June, but three are at Deaf Valley which is a major boost. This will be Spokane's chance to make one, last-minute run at the west. I am going to make a gutsy pick and say Spokane wins all four games in the month and enters July with 11 wins and a sweep of Arizona.
4) Utah Blaze (4-5)
Second quarter results: Won consecutive games in weeks six and seven to reach .500. The two-game win streak was snapped in a 65-49 loss to Arizona in week eight. Utah bounced back by holding to a 43-34 home win vs. Iowa, but lost an even closer game to San Jose in week ten.
5 Good:
- Both offense and defense rank 2nd in pass and total categories
- Mario Urrutia's breakout rookie season
- The tandem of David Hyland and Maurice Leggett in the secondary (9 int, 25 pbu)
- Tommy Grady has looked to regain his 2012 MVP form
- Aaron LeSue's leave-it-all on the field attitude that always gives this team a chance
5 Bad:
- Defense has allowed 52 ppg
- Tough June that has games at San Antonio, Chicago, and Spokane; host Jacksonville and San Jose
- Tommy Grady leads the AFL with 21 Int, Utah has committed 32 turnovers which is second in the league
- The loss of Caesar Rayford to the NFL, lead team with 6 sacks and 4 Forced Fumb
- 4-5 record has them last in west; 1-3 division record
Key Stats
Tommy Grady 57.3% comp, 2530 yds, 49 TD, 21 Int; Rush TD
Mario Urrutia 73 rec, 1016 yds, 22 TDAaron LeSue 59 rec, 722 yds, 15 TD
David Hyland 4 Int, 15 pbu, leads team with 47.5 tackles
Maurice Leggett 5 Int, 1 ret-TD, 10 pbu, 2nd on team with 43.5 tackles
Keenan Mace 3.5 sacks, must step-up in Rayford's abscence
Overview: With a 4-5 record Utah would be right in the mix in any of the other divisions, but in the west they are in last and are 4.5 games out of first. Utah and Tommy Grady started slow by losing three of four, all losses at home. Aaron LeSue got healthy and Grady returned to form to lead Utah to wins in three of their next four games to reach .500. A tough 35-34 loss to San Jose in week ten put them in a tough spot. In order for Utah to make a late run into the playoffs they are going to need Tommy Grady to throw the air out of the ball, Mario Urrutia and Aaron LeSue to continue their great years, and for the defense to improve by filling their holes. If Utah is going to put together a late win streak they need to score in the 55+ range and turn games in to shootouts. Prediction: June is also a make-or-break month for the Blaze with two divisional games and two games vs. the central. I think Utah is better than their record, but just is missing too much on defense to make a run. I think the Blaze limp into July with six wins; but maybe surprise and win some shootouts to reach seven or eight.
Standings entering Week 11
West Division Central Division
Arizona
9-1 (3-1) Chicago 5-5 (2-1)
San Jose
7-2 (1-2) San Antonio 4-5 (0-2)
Spokane 7-3 (2-1) Iowa 4-6 (2-1)
Utah
4-5 (1-3)
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