The first five weeks of this AFL season have come and gone while providing us
with exciting, over the wall action. The Sharks and Shock are both 5-0 and stand
as the only undefeated teams left, while the once-proud Orlando Predators are
the League's lone winless team at 0-4. In this edition, I will release my
thoughts and opinions from the first quarter of the season and give some
thoughts on what we might see for the next month of the season for the seven
teams in the American Conference.
American Conference
The Good
1) Jacksonville Sharks (5-0) - The Sharks have had a fantastic first quarter of the season by doing a lot of things very well to achieve a 5-0 record. Jacksonville started the season with a late-game comeback to win a tough road game against in-state rival Tampa Bay, and then followed with two consecutive road wins to successfully cap off a three-game road trip to being the year. When the time finally came to play in the Shark Tank, the Sharks anialated New Orleans 76-30 in week 4 and followed the performance up by surviving a late scare from Iowa in week 5 to stay undefeated. A key component of the Sharks' success has been their defense who has caused major problems for opposing quarterbacks to this point in the season. The defensive-line combination of Matt Marcorelle (2.5), Jerry Turner (5), and Rashaad Duncan (3) has tallied 10.5 sacks and mac-backer Aaron Robbins adds four sacks of his own. The defense has also recorded seven interceptions, four of them belonging to Terrance Smith. Bernard Morris is having another solid season, completing 71% of his passes for 1,081 yards and 25 touchdowns to just 1 interception; while adding 93 yards and 4 touchdowns rushing. Rendrick Taylor has also sturdied the Shark rushing attack with 127 yards and 5 touchdowns of his own. Jeff Hughley leads the receiving core with 418 yards and 8 touchdowns on 40 catches, and Jeron Harvey is having a quietly good season with 33 receptions for 313 yards and 8 touchdowns. The Sharks have made clutch plays all season long and will need to do so in order to stay unbeaten on their quest for a fourth consecutive division title.
2) Tampa Bay Storm (3-2) - The only negative news about Tampa Bay at this point in the season is that they are 0-2 at the Tampa Bay Times Forum and the Sharks are in the south, but other than that there isn't much to complain about. Tampa Bay is undefeated on the road and has been competitive in every game so far; bringing back optimisim of a return to postseason football for this storied franchise. Adrian McPherson has had a fabulous return to the AFL by completing 61% of his passes while throwing for 1,238 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 1 interception. McPherson has displayed amazing duel-threat ability by adding 183 yards and 14 touchdowns rushing to his production. Joe Hills has been the unquestionable top-target for McPherson through the first quarter of the season, leading the team with 38 receptions, 592 receiving yards, and 14 touchdowns. Hills also has caught multiple touchdowns in every game this season, and made League history in week 3 when he caught 16 passes for 259 yards and 5 touchdowns in a win at Utah. Greg Ellingson is also enjoying a solid season (33 catches, 454 yards, and 4 touchdowns) in his second season. The Storm defense has been phenominal at creating turnovers in their first five games, racking up 7 fumble recoveries and 8 interceptions. Chris Smith leads the team with 3 interceptions while Rashad Barksdale, Jean Fanor, and De'Audra Dix have also forced multiple takeaways to bolster a defense that features DeMarcus Tyler and R.J. Roberts up front who have combined for 5 sacks. If Tampa Bay can compete with the Shock, let alone be the first team to beat them in week 6 then the Storm are for real and can run with Jacksonville in the south division.
The Competitve
3) Philadelphia Soul (2-2) - The reigning American Conference champs have flied under the radar in 2013, thanks to losing an Arena Bowl rematch with Arizona in week 1 and having a bye in week 2. The Soul got on the fast track with back-to-back road wins, but lost momentum when they dropped their home-opener to Cleveland in week 5. Through the first four weeks most of us understood that the Soul's slow start was the cause of them being overlooked, but seeing them blow a 14-point lead at home against a young, inexperienced Cleveland team who entered the game winless has raised some concern. The Soul looked dominant in their two road wins and the first half verses Cleveland but played a sloppy and lethargic second half, which led to the ugly overtime possession that finalized the loss. Dan Raudabaugh is having a solid season to this point throwing for 1,149 yards, 6 interceptions, and 22 touchdowns while completing 98 of 147 passes. Derrick Ross has gotten off to a good start as well, rushing for 105 yards and 9 touchdowns on 31 carries. Tiger Jones has remained Raudabaugh's top target, leading the team with 36 receptions, 492 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns. These are all the good points about the Soul, but this year's team has some glaring holes in it that the 2012 team did not have. 1) Other than Tiger Jones' production, only Andrae Thurman has caught more than 13 passes (27) and gained over 200 receiving yards (214) among the rest of the receiving core. 2) Dan Raudabaugh has thrown an interception in all four games this season, including back-to-back two-interception games. 3) Philadelphia's defense on paper is one of the best in the AFL but hasn't performed like it, only recording 6 takaways while allowing 51.5 points/game in the first quarter of the season. All of these have been glaring weaknesses in the 2013 Philadelphia Soul and unless they get fixed this could end up being a disappointing season. The week 6 matchup verse Jacksonville should reveal a lot about the Soul and answer some questions concerning whether Philadelphia has just flown under the radar and had a bad game, or if there is legitmate concern towards this year's team.
The Bad
4) Pittsburgh Power (1-3) - The Pittsburgh Power....... The Power got off to a horrendous start this season getting blown-out by a combined score of 125-68 in their first two games, both of which at home. Things didn't get much better when the Power only managed to score 14 points, all in the third quarter, in a 45-14 loss at Chicago in week 4 which followed their bye week. The Power finally turned it around and erased an early 16-point deficit to comeback and defeat New Orleans 46-43 in week 5. Jordan Jefferson finally looked comfortable in the win over New Orleans, posting season-best numbers of passing 19-30, 223 yards, and 5 touchdowns to go along with 42 rush yards. Even though a performance of this caliber is considered average in the AFL, looking at Jefferson's stats through the first four weeks shows the improvement (55.7% completions, 729 pass yards, 13 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, with 138 yards and a touchdown rushing). The Power sit at 1-3 but are only one game behind the Soul for first in the east. In order for Pittsburgh to achieve the franchise's first winning season the offense must become more consistent and efficent. Mike Washington is having a fantastic year at this point, catching 36 passes for 331 yards and 4 touchdowns to lead the team in all categories. The reason I began this evaluation with "the dots" is because I have trouble understanding how this Power team has played as poorly as they have to this point in the season. The defense ranks first in the League in yards allowed and has recorded 8 sacks; but has only managed 4 takeaways. The secondary has been solid through the first five weeks with Sergio Gilliam having both of the team's two interceptions. The one glaring deffiency of this defense is their inability to get off of the field in third/fourth-and-long situations. Various times the Power have been able to hold their opponents into third/fourth-and-long but have given up either a first down or a touchdown on way too many of these. In order to become competitive fourth-and-long has to turn it a stop, not another set of downs. Another problem has been the lack of spreading the ball on offense. P.J. "Superman" Berry has only 20 receptions for 255 yards and 4 touchdowns, one of the AFL's most versatile receivers needs more targets and touches to utilize his elite playmaking ability. If the Power are to make a surprise run at the playoffs Jordan Jefferson, who played his best game in week 5, will need to continue to grow on the upswing during this season and will need to utilize the talents of Washington, Berry, and Perry Baker to improve a scoring average of 32 points/game. The defense will also need to continue to be the strength of this team, but needs to quit surrending first downs of fourth-and-long situations while forcing more turnovers.
5) New Orleans VooDoo (1-3) - The VooDoo got off to an exciting start in 2013 by winning a wild overtime game in the Graveyard against division-rival Orlando, but it remains the only win as we enter week 6. New Orleans has lost three straight games in different fashions, the defense failed to make stops against Iowa, got destroyed in the Sharks' home-opener, and blew an early 16-point lead to become Pittsburgh's first victory. The VooDoo defense has been solid despite allowing 53.8 points/game, but has had trouble making timely stops. The VooDoo defense has been respectable, but has had additional issues forcing turnovers. Eddie Moten made the game-clinching interception in the overtime win vs. Orlando and has two of the team's three interceptions. The New Orleans defense has only managed a total of four takaways and 6 sacks, which ranks at the bottom of the AFL entering week 6. Despite the stats the defense has been the better side of the ball for the VooDoo. Kurt Rocco and the offense have struggled in three of the four games this season and only have surpassed 45 points in one game; the opening win verse Orlando. Kurt Rocco has struggled in the first month of this season, and that's putting it nicely, he has completed just 48% of his passes while throwing for 738 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Rocco has also rushed for 10 yards and 2 touchdowns, but suffered an ankle injury on a touchdown run verse Pittsburgh in the first half and was place on injured reserve earlier this week. The offensive woes are really felt among a talented receiving core that after five weeks has yet to have one if its own reach 20 catches. Quorey Payne returned a kick for a touchdown when he made his season debut in week 5, after missing the first three games with an injury. Donovan Morgan has also been a big disappointment with only 17 receptions for 182 yards and 5 touchdowns in three games; he also had two costly fumbles in the loss vs. Pittsburgh before leaving the game with an injury that has put him back on the injured reserve list. New Orleans has a great opportunity to end their three-game losing streak and for their second home win of the season when they face a struggling San Jose on Saturday night. Zack Eskridge will make his first start of the year in Rocco's abscence and Bill Stull has been signed to be the backup. Whether the answer is in either of these two or it can be found in Kurt Rocco, it needs to come sooner than later if the VooDoo hope to salvage the 2013 season.
6) Cleveland Gladiators (1-3) - The Gladiators entered 2013 as a young, and inexperienced team that featured only five players with two or more years of AFL experience. Steve Thonn and company knew that they might be in for a tough season with such a young roster and have experienced some growing pains through these first five weeks. In his first year as a starting arena quarterback, Brian Zbydniewski has been serviceable abd has used his previous experience as a backup to become the leader of this young team. The Gladiators started the season with a 67-41 loss at home to Spokane which was a game where the offense had trouble executing in prime-scoring situations while the defense was unable to make a stop. The next two games didn't go much better, as it was the same story in a 69-47 road loss at Tampa Bay and a 66-49 defeat against Jacksonville. To be fair, the combined record of Cleveland's first three opponents is 15-3, so to say the Glads were a bit over-matched might be an understatement. After their bye week, the Gladiators headed to Philadelphia as the guests for the Soul's home-opener in week 5. Everything pointed to this being another blowout loss for the Glads, but "that's why we play the game!" Everything appeared to be going as planned when Philadelphia forced a pair of Zbydniewski interceptions in the first half and took a 14-point lead into halftime; while being scheduled to receive the opening possession of the second half. Whatever was said at halftime by Steve Thonn and crew I do not know, but it worked as the Glads came away with interceptions on the first two possessions of the third quarter and outscored thr Soul 14-0 in the period to tie the game. Zbydniewski stepped up to turn in his best game of the season by matching Dan Raudabaugh touchdown drive for touchdown drive in the fourth quarter, ultimately setting up his Ross Gornall for the game-tying 45-yard field at the buzzer to force overtime. In the overtime Brian Zbydniewski capped off his best performance of the young season with a touchdown pass to Thyron Lewis, the defense would make one final stand to secure the first win of the season. The Gladiaros pulled off the biggest upset in the first quarter of the season and enter week 6 on a high wave of momentum as they host a struggling Utah team that provides a great oppportunity for consecutive wins. Brian Zbydniewski completed 24 of 33 passes for 316 yards and 8 touchdowns in the win over Philadelphia. If the Glads look to make any noise this season they need to see this Zbydniewski and not the one from the first three games who completed 59.8% of his passes for 787 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. Dominic Goodman and Thyron Lewis who are two of the veterans on this team each have had solid first months: Goodman (24 rec, 247 yds, and 5 TD) and Lewis (21 rec, 312 yards, 7 TD). The Gladiators signed LaRoche Jackson a couple of weeks into the season to add a veteran prescence in the secondary to help a unit that has allowed 64.8 points/game. If Cleveland wants to make a surprise run at the playoffs, or east division, Brian Zbydniewski will need to continue his confident play that he showed in week 5, Dominic Goodman will need to have another 110+ catch season, and the defense will need to drastically grow by keeping opponents under 60 points/game while also forcing more turnovers.
7) Orlando Predators (0-4) - It's really a shame to see how one of the greatest franchises in Arena Football has fallen to the bottom of the Leagure in such a short time. In 2012 the Preds saw their streak of 18 consecutive playoff appreances come to an end, and in 2013 they have yet to enjoy a win. In each of their first two games Orlando held late fourth quarter leads, but was unable to make the necessary plays at the end of the game to lock up a road win. The Predators headed home to the Jungle in week 3 with hopes of knocking off Philadelphia, and got off to a great start when Marcus Everett scored two defensive touchdowns in the first five minutes to give Orlando a 14-0 lead without even running a play. Despite the great start Kyle Rowley failed to produce any points by the offense and by halftime a 14-point lead had turned into a 14-point deficit. The Soul ended up running away with a 61-33 win. After the bye week, Orlando hosted Tampa Bay in the first War on I4 matchup of 2013 in week 5. Kyle Rowley remained the starter admist a quarterback controversy, but was quickly pulled when he threw two interceptions in the first quarter. Despite Chris Dixon's efforts the Preds were unable to find a way to win, falling to 0-4 on the season. The main problem for Orlando has been interceptions. Kyle Rowley, who has started every game this season, has completed just 50.4% of his passes while throwing for 825 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Rowley has thrown multiple interceptions in three of the four games and has not had a touchdown pass since week 2. His counterpart Chris Dixon has appeared in the last two games, completing 26 of 34 passes for 318 yards, 5 touchdowns, and just 1 interception. Dixon also adds dual-threat ability to the offense as he has rushed for 15 yards on 3 carries. Orlando has as a quarterback controversy, but it is temporarily decided because Dixon was injured in week 5 and will be out 2-4 weeks. The qb situation also gets more complicated because Rowley was arrested earlier this past week and is rumored to be starting in week 6 while facing a probable release in the upcoming week. The week 6 news continued as the Preds traded Amarri Jackson to San Jose in exchange for the legend Aaron Garcia; but Garcia has reportedly refused to report and does not plan on joing the Predators. T.T. Toliver has only played one game because of a three-game suspension that he served to start the season (6 rec, 106 yds, 2 TD). Prechae Rodriguez has had a quietly solid first month, catching 28 passes for 398 yards and 8 touchdowns. Marcus Everett has recorded 3 takeaways and 2 defensive touchdowns, while Simeon Castille has the team's other 2 interceptions and Tim Cheatwood has recorded 2 of the team's 5 sacks. If Orlando is to make a huge turnaround the defense needs to start forcing turnovers and to cut an average of allowing 57.5 points/game. Chris Dixon needs to be the starter of this team when he returns from injury in the next couple weeks and hopefully Dixon and the Predators can find a winning formula and make a run at it in the second half of the season, otherwise it will be another long year in Orlando.
What to watch for during this last week of April and May
- Will Jacksonville and Tampa Bay runaway as the best two teams in the conference, or can things tighten up?
- Can the Philadelphia Soul find their form and hand the Sharks their first loss of the season?
- Which of the four teams in my "The Bad" zone will be able to become competitive and make any/some noise?
- Adrian McPherson's case for AFL MVP.
- Joe Hills' breakout season.
- The Sharks continued chase at a four-peat in the south division.
- How long until the Predators win their first game in 2013, will it be in the next month?
- Can Cleveland beat Utah in week 6 and become a young team who catches fire?
- The record of the first-place team in the east division by the end of May.
Standings entering Week 6
South Division East Division
Jacksonville 5-0 (2-0) Philadelphia 2-2 (0-1)
Tampa Bay 3-2 (1-1) Cleveland 1-3 (1-0)
New Orleans 1-4 (1-1) Pittsburgh 1-3 (0-0)
Orlando 0-4 (0-2)
5 Things I look for in the next 5 weeks
1) Jacksonville and Tampa Bay to distance themselves from the rest of the south.
2) The east division to remain close and for all the three teams to be within 2 games of each other.
3) Adrian McPherson to emerge as the front-runner for AFL MVP.
4) The Sharks to win in Philadelphia in week 6 and stay unbeaten.
5) The Power will emerge from the bottom of the pack in the conference.
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