2013 AFL Season, Frist Quarter Anaylsis - National Conference

The first five weeks of this AFL season have come and gone while providing us with exciting, over the wall action. The Sharks and Shock are both 5-0 and stand as the only undefeated teams left, while the once-proud Orlando Predators are the League's lone winless team at 0-4. In this edition, I will release my thoughts and opinions from the first quarter of the season and give some thoughts on what we might see for the next month of the season for the seven teams in the National Conference.

National Conference

The Good
1) Spokane Shock (5-0) - The Shock didnt nothing but win in the first five weeks of the season; winning their first three games on the road, outdueling Arizona in their home-opener, and beating the Sabercats in San Jose to cap it off. The Shock's offense has been nearly unstoppable to this point in the season. Erik Meyer is having a breakout year at quarterback to match the receiving corps of Adron Tennell, Kamar Jordan, Duane Brooks, Steven Black, and Jeffery Soloman. Tennell and Jordan have played in all five games this season, week 6 will be the third game for Brooks, and Soloman and Black have both missed the last two games with injuries. Meyer has completed 135 of 190 passes for 1,521 yards and 40 touchdowns with zero interceptions and Adron Tennell leads this deep group of receivers with 46 catches for 557 yards and 17 touchdowns; on an offense who has averaged 68.8 points/game. The Shock defense has also made their mark by being opportunistic in every week, especially in their week 4 win vs. the Rattlers. Beau Bell leads the team with 3.5 sacks and Paul Stephens set and AFL-record with 5 inteceptions in their week 5 win at San Jose.

2) Arizona Rattlers (4-1) - The defending champions have been very dominant through the first quarter of the season. If not for a 66-49 loss at Spokane in week 4, the Rattlers would be the unaminous top team in Arena Football. Nick Davila trails only Spokane's Meyer in passing, completing 97 of 145 passes for 1,444 yards and 34 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions. The Rattlers also are deep at receiver, but due to injuries Tysson Poots and Maurice Purify have both missed multiple games this season. The trio of Rod Windsor, Kerry Reed, and Jared Perry have spent the majority of offensive plays together in this first quarter of the season. Windsor leads the team with 24 receptions and 9 touchdowns, while Reed has 22 catches and 9 touchdowns, and Perry has caught 23 passes with 7 touchdowns to show how evenly talented this group has become. The Rattler defense has been dominant at no one's surprise. The trio of Virgil Gray, Arkeith Brown, and Marquis Floyd in the secondary has caused havoc for opposing quarterbacks; while Jeremy Kellem has also been a great piece in the middle of the defense. The front-line of Antajj Hawthorne, Cliff Dukes, Marcus Pittman, and Tyre Glasper have been a wrecking crew in their own relm. If not for a dominant performance in the fourth quarter by the Shock's defensive line in week 4, the Rattlers would be spotless. Garrett Lindholm has without a doubt been the top kicker at this point in the season, making 45-49 extra points and all three of his field goals.

The Competitive
3) Chicago Rush (3-2) - The Rush lost their first two games of the season while allowing 139 points to put themselves in an early two-game hole of Iowa. A road win at San Antonio in week 3 got the Rush their first win and they haven't lost since, taking a three-game win streak into Wells Fargo Arena on Friday night to try and even the score with Iowa. Carson Coffman has looked a lot more comfortable and confident in his last three games which has been a key reason for the Rush's success. Reggie Gray is having another excellant year, having 40 receptions for 499 yards and 12 touchdowns at this point in the season. The biggest reason for the Rush's turnaround has been their defense. The secondary of Vic Hall, Jorrick Calvin, Joe Phinisee, and Semaj Moody has become a freesome unit. Kelvin Morris and Darrell Campbell have both lead the front five of a defense that has allowed Chicago to turn a 0-2, 2 game-back start into a 3-2 record with a 1 game lead in the central division entering week 6.

4) Iowa Barnstormers (2-3) - The Barnstormers have gone in the exact opposite direction of the division-foe Chicago. The Barnstormers got off to a great 2-0 start that gave them a 2-game lead in the division, but three straight losses matched with the Rush's win streak have set Iowa a game-back in second. The bright side for Iowa is that all three losses have been close and they nearly gave Jacksonville its first loss of the season in week 5. J.J. Raterink has been solid, completing 101 of 166 passes for 1,366 yards, 22 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The starting trio of Darious Reynolds, Marco Thomas, and Colin Taylor has become banged-up; Reynolds hasn't played since week 3, Thomas returned in week 5 after missing some time, and Taylor missed his first game in week 5. A very bright spot during this losing stretch has been the return of Barnstormer great, Jesse Schmidt. He made his debut in week 4 and has caught 15 passes for 166 yards and 2 touchdowns. The injuries have also allowed for the emergance of Marcus Harris who has contributed 21 catches for 380 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jason Simpson leads the team in tackles and is the leader of an Iowa defense that has seen great production from its secondary with Ter'Ran Benton, De'Mon Glanton, and Errick McIntosh each have two interceptions to spark a quietly good defense. Kicking woes have also stalled the success of Iowa, but a mid-week release of Phil Marfuggi in exchange for Fabrizio Scaccia who hoefully can improve the extra-point production for the Stormers.

5) San Jose Sabercats (2-2) - The Aaron Garcia experiment was a major fail for the 'Cats. The Sabercats got off to a 2-0 start by narrowly escaping the Talons and Predators, who are a combined 1-7, in the first two weeks. After the hot start the Sabercats traveled to the Snake Pit to battler long-time rival Arizona. The Rattlers dominated the matchup on both sides of the ball, intercepting Garcia 4 times and countering with an unstoppable offensive attack. The 'Cats tried to rebound in week 5, but got demolished by the visiting Shock 69-47. The fans were already calling for the end of the Garcia who leads the AFL with 13 interceptions entering week 6. Paul Stephens intercepted him five times in week 5 which became the final straw for Darren Arbett and company, who traded Aaron Garcia to Orlando in exchange for Amarri Jackson (WR) earlier this week. Huey Whittaker has made big plays on both sides of the ball this season and he looks to return this week after missing the Spokane game. Also, a mid-week addition was the signing of Russ Michna, a AFL-veteran, to lead the offense. The Sabercat defense has also struggled this year, allowing 142 points in their last two games which have both been losses.

The Bad
6) Utah Blaze (1-3) - Three straight losses, all of them at home, and a 1-3 record is what lands a team on this list after five weeks of play. On paper the Blaze are easily a contender for the playoffs, but the eye-test doesn't lie and is proves they haven't earned that right just yet. So, why have the Blaze struggled so far? 1) Tommy Grady has not been the same guy who when Offensive Player of the Year in 2012, as in the first part of 2013 he has only completed 57.3% of his passes for 1,085 yards, 22 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions. 2) Aaron LeSue missed the first two games of the season with an injury, since his return he has 15 receptions for 239 yards and 5 touchdowns. 3) L.J. Castille has been a disappointment, only catching 11 passes 114 yards and one touchdown in three games. 4) 0-3 at home, allowing 71 points/game. 5) The defense's inability to make timely stops/stands. A bright spot has been the rise of rookie Mario Urrutia, who has become Grady's top target with 30 receptions for 420 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Blaze have a great opportunity to snap the three-game slide in week 6 when they travel to Cleveland to face the Gladiators, but time is of the essence playing in the wild western division.

7) San Antonio Talons (1-3) - A year ago the Talons were the one seed and looked primed for a run at the title, but things fell apart in the first round of the playoffs and a lot of key guys from that team left for a new organization in 2013. San Antonio's season got off to a frustrating start, between losing their first two games at home by a total of elevan points and losing John Dutton for the season in the second game vs. Chicago when he tore his achilles while avoiding pressure in the pocket. The Talons acted fast by signing Nick Hill prior to their week 3 duel with Tampa Bay, which saw Hill lead the Talons to their first win of the season. All the optimism left in week 5 when the Hill-led Talons got blown out, 83-40, by the Rattlers. The offense has struggled to score with an average of  just 44 points/game; 41 points/game in their three losses. Jomo Wilson is the only receiver that is over 21 catches, 200 yards, and 5 touchdowns at this point in the campaign (28 rec., 389 yds., 7 TD). The defense has done their part by only allowing over 50 points in the debacle against the Rattlers in week 5. The central division is still up for the taking, but the Talons need to figure out a solid plan on offense if they want to have any shot at repeating as division champs.

What to watch for during this last week of April and May
- The wild west division continuing to make noise at the top of the AFL.
- The battle between Spokane and Arizona for supremacy in the west, can San Jose or Utah fix things enough to put themselves in the mix?
- Will Chicago continue their winning ways and runaway with the central division or can Iowa rebound and go toe-to-toe with the Rush?
- Can the Shock keep up the offensive efficency that has lead them to a 5-0 record?
- Tommy Grady to return to his elite form sooner than later.
- Russ Michna to keep the Sabercats in contention.
- In order for San Antonio to turn things around they need to find a consistency with Nick Hill on offense and start scoring past 50 points/game in this next part of the season.

Standings entering Week 6
West Division                               Central Division
Spokane  5-0  (2-0)                       Chicago        3-2  (1-1)
Arizona   4-1  (2-1)                       Iowa             2-3  (1-0)
San Jose  2-2  (0-2)                       San Antonio 1-3  (0-1)
Utah        1-3  (0-1)

5 Things I look for in the next 5 weeks
1) The wild west to be in full-force and turn into a four-team race.
2) Spoakne and Arizona to both remain in the League's top 3.
3) Chicago to keep winning and build a comfortable lead in the central.
4) Iowa to turn things around by week 6 or 7 and get themselves back in the mix.
5) If San Antonio loses at the Pittsburgh in week 6 then they could be in for a long season, if they win on the road then they could potentially pass Iowa in the central.