Sunday, August 4, 2013

Evaluating my July AFL predictions

The 2013 AFL playoffs are well underway as we are four days into August. For six teams the season ended on the last Saturday of July, but before we go through the final break down of those teams we will look at how my July picks went.

Final Team Predictions

Cleveland "there is a reason why Cleveland is 2-12 at this point. I think the Gladiators will stay alive for an extra week, but I see them finishing with three wins and with the worst record in the AFL".
The Gladiators made July interesting by upsetting Orlando in week eighteen and finished 4-14 to share the AFL's worst record with Pittsburgh.

Jacksonville "will win two of three games in July and will have home field advantage when the postseason comes time".
The Sharks won two of three July games to finish with a 12-6, that was good enough to earn them home field advantage in the American Conference.  

New Orleans "a tough July for the VooDoo that's coupled with an easy slate for Orlando means no playoffs this year. New Orleans is only one game back and has the head-to-head, but I think the damage will be done before their week nineteen trip to the Jungle and the VooDoo will finish with a disappointing five wins".
The VooDoo ran into a tough schedule and was only able to finish with five wins, but they were in it until a loss at Orlando in the final week.

Orlando "entered July with a one-game lead over New Orleans for the final wild card in the American Conference. The final month's schedule looks favorable for Orlando and once they move past a tough match with Arizona, I see them finishing the season with eight wins and entering the playoffs on a three-game win streak".
The Predators had an up-and-down month, but were able to finish with a 7-11 record and earned the third seed in the American Conference.

Pittsburgh "there are just too many things against the Power to pick them as a sneaky four seed. Between the injuries and July's schedule I see them finishing with four wins, five if they benefit from any resting of opposing players".
The Power finished their third season with a disappointing 4-14 record. 

Philadelphia "I feel the Soul have finally hit their stride and can see them getting home field, but the tough two-game road trip might be enough to keep them as a two seed in the American Conference. I think they will finish the regular season with 12 wins, and regardless of their seed the Soul will be the favorites to return to the Arena Bowl".
The Soul finished with twelve wins, but it was the disappointing performance in the Alamo that caused a stumble and let home field advantage slip away.

Tampa Bay "has lost three-straight and five of seven, but when McPherson and a couple of key defenders return to action I look for Tampa Bay to pull even in July and enter the playoffs as the three seed with a 9-9 record".
Adrian McPherson and those "couple defenders" were unable to return and as a result the Storm limped, no pun intended, to a 7-11 finish and the fourth seed in the American Conference.
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Arizona "regardless of the situation or opponent it is hard to pick against Arizona, they will clinch home field advantage in week sixteen and lock the division up later in July. I see the Rattlers heading into the playoffs with fifteen wins and the one seed".
The Rattlers enter the playoffs with 15 wins and home field in the National Conference.
 
Chicago "faces a tough July that I think will knock them out of the playoffs. The Rush are a good team but looking at their remaining schedule you see Philadelphia who has hit their stride by winning six of seven, Arizona who is the AFL's top ranked team, and San Jose who is 10-4 in their own right. Chicago will finish with nine wins and miss the postseason by one game".
 The Rush were impressive in the final four weeks of the season and pulled out two wins to finish 10-8 and claim another central division crown.

Iowa "is clearly better than their 6-9 record, but at the end of the day they face a 2.5 game deficit in the central with four weeks to play and face an uphill climb. I say they finish with eight wins, but will miss the postseason".
Maybe it wasn't as clear as I thought, Iowa finished 6-12 and looked miserable in every July game.

San Antonio "the Talons look to have finally found a solid option at quarterback and pose the AFL's top defense. Despite being paired with the best division in all of Arena Football the Talons have a shot because the saying goes "defense wins championships." It is not going to be easy, but San Antonio will pull even in July and finish with ten wins which will give them a second consecutive division title".
The Talons finished with ten wins, but based on a point-differential tiebreak it was not enough to qualify for the postseason. Rohan Davey was named week seventeen MVP, but had two ugly performances that hurt San Antonio's chances.

San Jose "should be able to win at least two of their July games, but getting swept by Spokane will prevent them from a better playoff seeding. San Jose will finish with twelve wins and get the second N.C. wild card".
The Sabercats won three of four games in the final months to finish at 13-5 and receive the fourth seed in the National Conference; setting up another first round date with Arizona!

Spokane "is a solid team in their own right and has played great this year. I think a two-game deficit to Arizona in the west is too much to overcome in July, but I see the Shock finishing with thirteen wins and the three seed in time for August".
The Shock took a tidal wave of momentum into the postseason by winning all four games in July, finishing with a 14-4 mark. 

Utah "even though Utah is out, they are a better team than their record states when you consider the strength of the west. The Blaze have a chance to play spoiler in July and I think they will do a good enough job to at least make it interesting and finish with six or seven wins".
Despite being the only team mathematically eliminated entering July the Blaze didn't give up and finished with a 7-11 record.

My Predicted Playoff Seedings
1 Seeds - Jacksonville & Arizona
2 Seeds - Philadelphia & San Antonio (Chicago)
3 Seeds - Tampa Bay (Orlando) & Spokane
4 Seeds - Orlando (Tampa Bay) & San Jose






As you can see I got five out of eight, with my only major miss being San Antonio instead of Chicago, hope you all enjoyed my analysis and are ready for another great postseason!

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